Chief Outlook for 2019: China market has no stall risk is consensus
Chief Outlook for 2019 | JPMC Zhang Jun: No stall risk in the Chinese market is a consensus. Will surging news reporter Liu Minyu’s A-shares usher in the dawn of 2019?
Recently, surging news reporters have interviewed a number of industry chief analysts, economists, etc., reviewing the market in 2018 and looking forward to the market in 2019.
Published today is an exclusive interview with Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities.
According to Zhang Jun’s forecast, the GDP growth rate in 2019 will be close to 6.
Judging from the “troika” driving GDP, the short-term effects of infrastructure supplementation in the first half of the year will gradually emerge, which will underpin economic growth and can 四川耍耍网 only be used as an expedient measure for stable growth in the short term.
In terms of consumption, the growth of physical consumption will continue to weaken, but service consumption will become the main driving force for consumption growth.
Exports exist. Zhang Jun believes that global economic growth and protectionism will make the contribution rate of net exports negative and become a drag on economic growth.
Although Zhang Zhang frankly stated that the domestic macro economy is facing downward pressure, the central government ‘s confirmation of the downward pressure is actually a positive signal. Therefore, he is cautious about the overall macro economy and estimates that the macro policy portfolio will be “stable currency, loose credit, Wide finance. ”
Zhang Jun said that from the perspective of global asset allocation, global assets will present an alternate layout from the United States in 2019. In the process of global capital’s search for certainty, the Chinese market is estimated to be attractive because there is no risk of stalling, plus supplementary stability.So the certainty is strong.
The following is the full text of an interview with Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, Surging News: 1. Surging News: Both the CPI and PPI data for December 2018 released by the National Bureau of Statistics bulletin, what do you think?
Zhang Jun: Since the second half of last year, the CPI has seen a significant downward trend in the transition, and the risk of stagflation that the market is worried about has decreased.
Everyone is more worried about the risk of deflation. I think the PPI may change from positive to negative around the second quarter, and CPI may increase and decrease.
Inflation will not be a guide for monetary policy.
The size of the monetary policy space this year, it is expected that there will be interest rate cuts in addition to the RRR cut. The main reasons are twofold. One is the decline in the US dollar index, and the pressure on the RMB exchange rate can also be made up. The other is to gradually reduce the pressure.
2. Surging news: What is the current downward pressure on the macro economy as a whole?
Zhang Jun: The downward pressure on the economy is still great.
Since the beginning of the year, we have turned to optimism.
In the second half of last year, the policy side has confirmed the fact of the economic downturn.
In the past, we always talked about “stability in stability”. Last year we began to talk about “change in stability” and then “worries in change.”
Central confirmation is a positive signal.
Difficulties are not the most important, and not avoiding is the most important.
On the policy side, this is a positive sign.
3. Surging news: In the “troika”, how will investment affect the macroeconomic trend?
Zhang Jun: In my opinion, the short-term effects of infrastructure supplementation in the first half of the year will gradually emerge, underpinning economic growth.
At present, it is mainly a question of financing. The government is still stable. The effect of infrastructure investment may not be particularly good, and local government financing pressure may be relatively large.
In addition, the marginal effect of the infrastructure itself is attenuated at the same time, so the shortcomings of infrastructure construction can only be used as an expedient measure for stable growth in the short term.
In the context of the continued decline in profits of industrial enterprises, manufacturing investment is likely to decline at the peak, so the central government may moderately relax the real estate adjustment policy marginally in the second half of the year.
4. Surging news: What do you think of this year’s real estate market?
Zhang Jun: The real estate market may be adjusted by the middle of this year.
The first is to look at the point in time, and the second is to look at the intensity of the policy.
It ‘s been a year since the government contracted this round. In fact, first-tier cities are the main ones that do not rise in housing prices. Some of the third-tier and fourth-tier cities are still rising in the middle of last year. Therefore, the effect of this round of change is not particularly obvious. The government is not very willing.Relax too early.
In the past, we often saw that some local governments first came out to test the central government’s bottom line, and now there have been some cases, but at present, the central government has maintained its policy stance.
When will the central budget change?
It depends on the effect of infrastructure investment.
After the Spring Festival, the construction site will start and infrastructure investment will stabilize. In the first half of the year, the government will definitely hope that infrastructure investment will grow steadily. If it can be stabilized, then I believe the government does not want to rely on real estate to stimulate investment.
At the same time, if the US-China trade talks have good results, they will also boost confidence.
5, surging news: just in the beginning of 2019, the annual announcement of the RRR cut, is it beyond market expectations?Why is this happening?
Zhang Jun: The time point for lowering the standard was earlier than expected.
It is believed that the relevant departments have seen the downward pressure on the economy, and the recent data actually have obvious responses. For example, the December PMI was close to expectations, the monthly profit growth of industrial enterprises was negative, and the export data was relatively poor. There is room for further improvement in policy.
The RRR cut is of a replacement nature. Monetary policy has two directions: to stabilize liquidity in the short term, to lengthen short-term growth, and to stimulate investment in fixed assets, especially infrastructure investment.
If we look at the monetary and credit data, supplementary loans are okay, but the proportion of medium and long-term loans is low, which shows that banks’ lending intentions are not very strong, which indicates that the monetary policy intervention mechanism is not smooth, and we hope to improve lending intentions.
6. Surging news: What will be the macro policy mix in 2019?
Zhang Jun: I think the domestic macro policy mix will be “stable currency, loose credit, and loose finances.”
Because as I said just now, the problem is that the mechanism of monetary policy itself is not smooth, not that monetary policy itself needs a lot of easing.
At the same time, under the background that the central government’s guidance on fiscal policies needs to be more active, we expect that the budget deficit rate this year, the scale of local government debt issuance and tax and fee reductions will increase, so that “broad fiscal” measures will be actively implemented.
However, in the medium and long term, the pressure of fiscal expenditure will be accompanied by the aging of the population, so there is little room for stimulating economic growth through continued large-scale tax cuts in the future.
7. Surging news: How do you think investors should invest from the perspective of large asset allocation?
Zhang Jun: This year is the turning point of the global economy.
The US economic growth rate has fallen. We judge that the Fed raised interest rates twice in the first half of the year and then suspended it.
Last year, global assets returned to the United States, and this year is a replacement.
No market is particularly good, so after capital replacement, it is more looking for certainty. Foreign exchange inflows into A-shares have seen this kind of certainty in the Chinese market.
We expect GDP growth in 2019 to be 6.
3%, no one in the market predicts below 6%, and everyone’s consensus is that there is no stall risk in the Chinese market, and the certainty is high.
And the exchange rate is stable, and the estimates are relatively average.
Therefore, from the perspective of global allocation, we are optimistic about emerging markets, and China’s certainty is very high.
8, surging news: the global market has experienced a sudden change in the beginning of the year, what does this indicate?
Zhang Jun: At the end of the global economic recovery, the rising volatility of risk assets is a typical phenomenon.
Rising volatility means that investors avoid rising dangerous moods, a phenomenon that will continue until the inflection point occurs.
(This article comes from 北京夜生活网 Surging News)